> . Any stake-holders care to weigh in on whether you'd care about the
> choice of one of Kerry's options?
I have no holdings nor ever traded this claim, though I have a book order to buy
at 1 and may well have had more reasonably priced orders in past.
The claim says it is about "rest mass of the electron neutrino" so I think it
should be about electron neutrino and not the lightest of the neutrinos or any
other such variation on that.
5 sigma was suggested as being needed and I am aware of this being required to
claim a discovery in this field. However, for the purposes of settling a bet,
that would sound to me like prevaricating as an excuse to not settle a bet by
requiring something too near certain proof. Hence I would be more inclined to
suggest at least 3 sigma (also used in the field as indicative but not
established beyond doubt?) or maybe something else between 3 sigma and 5 sigma
to be more appropriate.
If it turns out to be close to 0.01 eV, the mass might be known with reasonable
precision but the claim go on for a very long time to get to 5 sigma level.
Perhaps some decent length of time with no change in the central value estimate
from under to over the limit might be appropriate before reducing 5 sigma level
to 3 sigma level might be another/better alternative?