Ideosphere Forum

fx-discuss: FX Claim POIL30

Author: chrisran.bma e-mail
Conversation: fx-discuss: FX Claim POIL30 ( prev | next ) reply!
Topic: fx-discuss ( prev | next )
In-Reply-To: Neal Gafter's post
Followed-Up-By: Michael Cowley's post
Date: Sat May 09, 2020 05:03 pm

chrisran.bma e-mail
Michael Cowley



This claim included

"The precise meaning of 'temporary freak circumstances' is at the judges discretion but should be expected to include things like natural disasters, terrorist action on oil production/refining or other facilities, wars that are significantly more widespread than previous years, pandemics, or government action like bans/rationing possibly taxes etc provided that the circumstances are expected to last 18 months or less and have highly significant impact on oil production."

It later indicates

"The temporary decision should mainly be based on whether it is intended or expected to last 18 months or less. If this isn't clear the judge doesn't have to make an immediate decision. If there is new peak or no circumstances requiring judgement if it is not temporary freak circumstances, then the decision doesn't have to be made."


As pandemics is listed, I think nature of covid 19 potentially qualifying as 'temporary freak circumstances' is fairly easy and obvious. I also have no doubts about it having 'highly significant impact on oil production' so the remaining requirement is "the circumstances are expected to last 18 months or less".

Lockdown is, I think, clearly 'expected to last 18 months or less' but the judge may well take the view that 'the circumstances expected' include a significantly longer period of effects such as from some social distancing measures continuing for much longer than just lockdown measures or even as long as the economy taking time to recover from recession effects or the virus spreading or the virus being widespread or the virus still being a threat such that social distancing cannot be completely removed or some other meaning of 'the circumstances'.

So two issues:

What "the circumstances" covers, and

Is this expected to last 18 months or less.

These issues may or may not matter and, if unclear, the judge doesn't have to make a decision now. However, if the judge thinks it is clear enough then he may want to decide, and possibly also announce decision, at a time close to event starting rather than having to try to figure out what "was expected" at a later time. Even if unclear and not announced, preliminary judgements made at a more appropriate time might be useful later.

If it is 'temporary freak circumstances' then the decision on when the circumstances cease is clearly a decision for a later time.

If the judge wants to know what I think as claim creator, I am happy to provide this but I don't want to usurp the judge who clearly has discretion.

I hope I haven't created a plethora of difficult judgments and sorry if the wording of the claim makes these issues awkward to decide upon. (I think this was risk we knew about but need for temporary exception is possibly? justified and clarifying what 'the circumstances' covers in advance for all possible circumstances would have been difficult and lengthened the claim further.)

FWIW, I prefer such decisions (or details of what the judge will consider) to be publicly available as early as reasonably possible, preferably in judge's statement, so people are making 'investment' decisions on the substance of the claim rather than speculating on what the judge will think, but clearly the judge has discretion to decide how to deal with these issues.

Best Regards

Chris Randles

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