> I think if he resigns because it is clear he will otherwise be impeached
> then the claim should be designed to be judged true in that situation.
I can see the reasoning for this, but I also think (1) it makes the claim
much harder to judge without controversy, and (2) the alternative still
allows for interesting hedging of people's bets based on whether they think
resignation is likely.
Let's imagine the Democrats take control of the House in 2019 and the
speaker announces that their first order of business will be impeachment.
With your variation, the ticker for the claim will go right up to around
1.0 and stay there. But if we keep the wording strict, then it would
continue to fluctuate based on whether people think resignation is more
But I'm happy to do it either way. I can see the argument that people who
bought YES tickets would feel "cheated" if at the last moment there was a