Ideosphere Forum

fx-propose: Proposal: 'POIL30'

Author: FX
Conversation: fx-propose: Proposal: 'POIL30' ( prev | next ) reply!
Topic: fx-propose ( prev | next )
Followed-Up-By: chrisran.bma e-mail's post
Date: Tue Aug 21, 2018 07:01 am

FX
chrisran.bma e-mail



The following claim has been proposed. If you have constructive suggestions for
improving it, please follow-up to this message. Thank you.

claim: POIL30
owner: 7886 (crandles)
judge: TBD
short: Peak Oil by 2030
long:
This is a scaled claim that will pay (10*(peak year-2020)) capped at
or between 0 and 100. The peak year is defined as year of highest oil
production according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
When there is a subsequent year with oil production being over 5%
below the peak year and this is neither the year following the peak
year nor is due to temporary unusual circumstances, then the claim
should be judged.

What temporary unusual circumstances are, is at the judges discretion
but might include things like natural disasters or terrorist action
on oil production/refining or other facilities or government action
like bans/rationing possibly taxes etc that are expected to last 18
months or less.

However, if oil production remains below 95% of the peak year's oil
production for three years then the circumstances cease to be
temporary unusual circumstances and the claim should be judged.

It is possible the claim will need to be kept open past the due date
to see if a new peak is reached, or to see if oil production declines
to less than 95% of peak oil production or to see if circumstances
remain temporary unusual circumstances.
due date: 2031/07/31


(signed) FX

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