Ideosphere Forum

fx-propose: Proposal: 'Starsh'

Author: FX
Conversation: fx-propose: Proposal: 'Starsh' ( prev | next ) reply!
Topic: fx-propose ( prev | next )
Date: Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:01 pm

FX




The following claim has been proposed. If you have constructive suggestions for
improving it, please follow-up to this message. Thank you.

claim: Starsh
owner: 7886 (crandles)
judge: TBD
short: First Starship paying launch
long:
This is a scaled claim to estimate date of first successful
commercial orbital launch of SpaceX's Starship.

The claim pays 100 if launch occurs before 31 August 2021. It pays 3
less for each calendar month that expires without a first commercial
launch.

I.e. If launch is in September 2021 UTC then the claim pays 97. If
launch is in October 2021 UTC then the claim pays 94. If launch is in
August 2022 UTC then the claim pays 64. If launch is in September
2023 UTC then the claim pays 25. If launch is in May 2024 UTC then
the claim pays 1. If launch has not occurred by 31 May 2024 UTC then
the claim pays 0.

To be commercial there has to be a paying customer that is not
parent company or subsidiary company of SpaceX nor can it be a
subsidiary of same ultimate controlling company, nor can it be a
company whose majority owner is Elon Musk or a fairly close relative
of Elon Musk. So the payload being Starlink satellites would not
qualify if Starlink is owned by SpaceX or if it is spun off into a
subsidiary company but might qualify if there is no longer a majority
of shares owned by SpaceX group or relatives of Elon Musk at the time
the contract is negotiated. A free publicity stunt launch of a Tesla
car would not qualify but if there is more than a token payment and
Tesla Inc is not controlled by SpaceX nor by Elon Musk and relatives
then it could qualify.

A fairly substantial discount for being willing to fly on the first
orbital launch attempt would still be likely to be considered a
commercial launch. A token payment of $50ꯠ or less could well
be considered non commercial. If it is unclear if the payment is only
a token amount then the judge shall have discretion over how long to
wait for more information and what to consider to decide if the
launch is commercial.

A launch that successfully launches satellites to close to their
intended orbit shall be considered successful regardless of whether
the rockets land successfully. If SpaceX changes the name of what it
now calls Starship (together with its SuperHeavy booster), the first
commercial orbital launch of that rocket system will still count for
determining the value of this claim regardless of its name at the
time.

If there is a string of launches of e.g. Starlink Satellites that
don't count as commercial launches then the date of the second
successful such launch shall be used for this claim. (This as a proxy
for when the rocket is commercially operating.)
due date: 2024/06/01


(signed) FX

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