Ideosphere Forum

if-discuss: Some IF stats

Author: Dave Steele
Conversation: if-discuss: Some IF stats ( prev | next ) reply!
Topic: fx-discuss ( prev | next )
Date: Fri Jul 19, 1996 12:38 pm

Dave Steele




Lately I've been doing a little research on how many of us IF-traders there are.

Some information gathered over the last week:

1) 1548 Total number of registered traders
2) 1182 Total number of registered traders with a non-1.000 score
3) 407 Total traders with registered bids
4) 57 Total traders with registered bids less than a week old

(1) is the absolute ceiling of our population.

Since anyone with a score of 1.000 has very likely never traded, (2) also
represents an absolute ceiling of present and past (inactive) traders.

(3) includes (A)present and (B)past traders, but doesn't include (C)current
traders that don't have any outstanding bids. In other words, (3) = A + B -
C. I believe that B/A > C/A, or B>C, so (if you agree) (3) is also a
ceiling number.

I would guess that (4) represents between 10% and 20% of current traders,
yielding an estimate of 285 to 570 active traders.

Taking all that into consideration, I would guestimate that there are about
300 of us. (I didn't check the size of if-discuss - that would be an
interesting data point). So only 20% of us are active. A bit lower than I
had expected.

Given that there are about 270 issues in the database right now, that means
there is a 1:1 ratio between traders and issues.

That ratio is too low. I believe that anyone who is interested in the
future success of Idea Futures should be interested in raising that ratio
to the 10:1 range or beyond. That can be done by raising the number of
traders and/or reducing the number of issues.


For those who are interested, here is the overall distribution of bids
across issues. Anyone want to guess the issue with 107 outstanding bids?

#bids
#issues
0 0
1 16
2 14
3 18
4 18 25% point
5 15
6 17
7 19
8 18 median
9 13
10 11
11 15 average
12 8
13 11
14 4
15 9 75%
16 8
17 8
18 7
19 7
20 6
21 1
22 3
23 1
24 2
25 1
26 1
27 4
28 3
29 1
30 1
31 1
32 1
33 1
38 1
43 1
44 1
50 1
59 1
107 1

-----
Dave Steele daves@xetron.com
Xetron Corp.
460 W. Crescentville Road
Cincinnati, Ohio 45246
http://www.xetron.com/


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